What does it mean if Dick Lugar loses in Indiana?

But back to Dick Lugar. His last election in 2006 he won without a Democratic challenger, forget about a fellow Republican opposing him. Now Democrats are already talking about taking on Mourdock, basically calling Lugar a dead man walking.

Because Indiana is such a solidly Red state, Mourdock would probably still be the favorite against he Democratic nominee, Congressman Joe Donnelly, in November. But as Politico reported last week, a "Lugar loss would undoubtedly energize national Democrats and Donnelly?s campaign, which was essentially built around the scenario of facing Mourdock."

Democrats can only fantasize that the scenarios that occurred in Delaware and Nevada in 2010 could repeat themselves in 2012. That's then Republicans went for the Tea Party candidate because they were "purer," but in some cases less electable to the general public. You'll remember a certain Christine O'Donnell winning her primary against a more moderate longtime Republican, Mike Castle in Delaware? O'Donnell then lost to Democrat Chris Coons in the fall.

And who could forget how vulnerable Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was looking in Nevada for much of 2010? That is, until he faced the erratic Sharon Angle, another Tea Party favorite, and won.

Of course, Tea Party members might rather recall Utah, where U.S. Senator Robert Bennett was denied another nomination by insurgent Republicans because he supported the 2008 Wall Street bailout.

So what will it be for Indiana in 2012? Well, maybe we should wait and see how the results Tuesday night before making any further predictions.